Champions League · League phase MD6
Arsenal
ARS
Real Madrid
RMA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal60%
Draw23%
Real Madrid17%
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.96
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.3%
- 2–010.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
56%Possession55%
54%Territory40%
36%From set plays36%
0.11Chance quality0.13
2.9%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Arsenal, 2 for Real Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.