Champions League · League phase MD6
Arsenal
ARS
Real Madrid
RMA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal67%
Draw19%
Real Madrid13%
Expected goals
2.22 – 0.93
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
58%Possession36%
71%Territory39%
6%From set plays3%
0.16Chance quality0.18
1.3%Directness2.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Arsenal, 1 for Real Madrid. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.