Champions League · League phase MD5
Manchester City
MCI
Napoli
NAP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man City61%
Draw24%
Napoli15%
Expected goals
1.77 – 0.78
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.3%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
59%Possession46%
49%Territory45%
31%From set plays29%
0.13Chance quality0.12
3.8%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Man City, 2 for Napoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.