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Champions League · League phase MD2

Manchester City

MCI

Paris Saint-Germain

PSG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Man City40%
Draw28%
PSG32%

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.24

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.6%
  • 1010.4%
  • 019.2%
  • 218.6%
  • 008.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

64%Possession72%
51%Territory61%
12%From set plays13%
0.12Chance quality0.13
3.0%Directness4.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Man City, 1 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.