Champions League · League phase MD2
Manchester City
MCI
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man City40%
Draw28%
PSG32%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.24
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
64%Possession72%
51%Territory61%
12%From set plays13%
0.12Chance quality0.13
3.0%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Man City, 1 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Man City
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.