Champions League · League phase MD8
Liverpool
LIV
Lens
RCL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Liverpool77%
Draw15%
Lens8%
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.73
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–012.6%
- 1–010.4%
- 3–010.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
45%Possession63%
52%Territory48%
12%From set plays36%
0.12Chance quality0.07
6.7%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Liverpool, 1 for Lens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Liverpool
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.