Champions League · League phase MD8
Liverpool
LIV
Lens
RCL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Liverpool78%
Draw15%
Lens8%
Expected goals
2.62 – 0.76
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.9%
- 3–010.0%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
59%Possession50%
50%Territory40%
25%From set plays33%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.5%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Liverpool, 2 for Lens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Liverpool
Lens
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.