Champions League · League phase MD3
Liverpool
LIV
Villarreal
VIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Liverpool77%
Draw16%
Villarreal7%
Expected goals
2.38 – 0.61
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
42%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–014.4%
- 1–012.5%
- 3–011.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
45%Possession48%
52%Territory28%
12%From set plays26%
0.12Chance quality0.11
6.7%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Liverpool, 1 for Villarreal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Liverpool
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.