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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Champions League · League phase MD5

Real Madrid

RMA

PSV Eindhoven

PSV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Madrid62%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven18%

Expected goals

2.20 – 1.14

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–19.0%
  • 2–08.6%
  • 1–08.4%
  • 3–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

55%Possession59%
40%Territory41%
36%From set plays11%
0.13Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Real Madrid, 2 for PSV Eindhoven. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.