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Champions League · League phase MD5

Real Madrid

RMA

PSV Eindhoven

PSV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Madrid64%
Draw19%
PSV Eindhoven17%

Expected goals

2.36 – 1.21

Over 2.5

68%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 219.6%
  • 118.1%
  • 208.0%
  • 317.5%
  • 107.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

36%Possession54%
39%Territory41%
3%From set plays42%
0.18Chance quality0.04
2.8%Directness8.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Real Madrid, 1 for PSV Eindhoven. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

PSV Eindhoven

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.