Champions League · League phase MD3
Bayern München
BAY
Arsenal
ARS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bayern München33%
Draw29%
Arsenal38%
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.29
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
66%Possession58%
67%Territory71%
27%From set plays6%
0.10Chance quality0.16
2.3%Directness1.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Bayern München, 1 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.