Champions League · League phase MD8
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Galatasaray
GAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PSG67%
Draw19%
Galatasaray14%
Expected goals
2.24 – 0.96
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
47%Possession37%
35%Territory28%
3%From set plays15%
0.14Chance quality0.11
5.8%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for PSG, 2 for Galatasaray. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.