Champions League · League phase MD5
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Roma
ROM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PSG74%
Draw16%
Roma10%
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.86
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.2%
- 3–08.8%
- 3–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
72%Possession58%
61%Territory51%
13%From set plays17%
0.13Chance quality0.06
4.4%Directness2.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for PSG, 1 for Roma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.