Champions League · League phase MD5
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Roma
ROM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PSG66%
Draw20%
Roma15%
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.02
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
47%Possession64%
35%Territory53%
3%From set plays16%
0.14Chance quality0.11
5.8%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for PSG, 2 for Roma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 54 matches, not the full season.