Champions League · League phase MD3
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Barcelona
BAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PSG52%
Draw23%
Barcelona25%
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.32
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–07.2%
- 2–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
72%Possession72%
61%Territory50%
13%From set plays25%
0.13Chance quality0.09
4.4%Directness2.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for PSG, 1 for Barcelona. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 14 of 18 matches, not the full season.