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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD7

Neftchi Fargona

NEF

Al Ahli

ALL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Neftchi Fargona43%
Draw28%
Al Ahli29%

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.15

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 1–011.2%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.7%
  • 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

52%Possession57%
41%Territory47%
2.8%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Neftchi Fargona, 1 for Al Ahli. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Al Ahli

No regular with a goal involvement yet.

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.