AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD7
Neftchi Fargona
NEF
Al Ahli
ALH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Neftchi Fargona35%
Draw29%
Al Ahli36%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.30
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–08.9%
- 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
43%Possession61%
44%Territory39%
5.5%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Neftchi Fargona, 2 for Al Ahli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 53 matches, not the full season.