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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD7

Al Ittihad

ALT

Al-Gharafa

ALG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Ittihad46%
Draw27%
Al-Gharafa27%

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.17

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–010.6%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 2–07.6%
  • 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

66%Possession41%
55%Territory41%
2.3%Directness8.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Al Ittihad, 2 for Al-Gharafa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 51 matches, not the full season.