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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD7

Al Ittihad

ALI

Al-Gharafa

ALG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Ittihad43%
Draw27%
Al-Gharafa29%

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.21

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.2%
  • 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

58%Possession32%
49%Territory28%
5.2%Directness10.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Al Ittihad, 1 for Al-Gharafa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.