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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD6

Esteghlal

EST

Neftchi Fargona

NEF

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Esteghlal44%
Draw27%
Neftchi Fargona28%

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.15

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 1–011.1%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 0–18.3%
  • 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

26%Possession52%
34%Territory41%
8.7%Directness2.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Esteghlal, 1 for Neftchi Fargona. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.