AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD6
Esteghlal
EST
Neftchi Fargona
NEF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Esteghlal48%
Draw27%
Neftchi Fargona25%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.10
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
51%Possession38%
32%Territory36%
4.4%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Esteghlal, 3 for Neftchi Fargona. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 51 matches, not the full season.