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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD5

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

ALU

Al-Gharafa

ALG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya41%
Draw28%
Al-Gharafa32%

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.25

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 1–010.2%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 0–18.7%
  • 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

44%Possession41%
32%Territory41%
6.3%Directness8.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya, 2 for Al-Gharafa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 47 matches, not the full season.