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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD5

Neftchi Fargona

NEF

Al Hilal

ALH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Neftchi Fargona42%
Draw28%
Al Hilal30%

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.20

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 1–010.7%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.7%
  • 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

52%Possession68%
41%Territory60%
2.8%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Neftchi Fargona, 1 for Al Hilal. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.