AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD4
Esteghlal
EST
Al-Shamal
ALS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Esteghlal42%
Draw28%
Al-Shamal29%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.13
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–09.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
51%Possession42%
32%Territory48%
4.4%Directness9.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Esteghlal, 1 for Al-Shamal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al-Shamal
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 31 of 51 matches, not the full season.