AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD4
Esteghlal
EST
Al-Shamal
ALS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Esteghlal47%
Draw27%
Al-Shamal27%
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.15
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
26%Possession42%
34%Territory30%
8.7%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Esteghlal, 1 for Al-Shamal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.