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AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD4

Esteghlal

EST

Al-Shamal

ALS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Esteghlal47%
Draw27%
Al-Shamal27%

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.15

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.0%
  • 1010.8%
  • 219.3%
  • 207.7%
  • 017.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

26%Possession42%
34%Territory30%
8.7%Directness5.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Esteghlal, 1 for Al-Shamal. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.