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AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD4

Al-Gharafa

ALG

Al Qadsiah

ALQ

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al-Gharafa37%
Draw28%
Al Qadsiah35%

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.32

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 1–09.6%
  • 0–19.4%
  • 2–18.2%
  • 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

41%Possession60%
41%Territory45%
8.0%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Al-Gharafa, 2 for Al Qadsiah. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 47 matches, not the full season.