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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD4

Al-Gharafa

ALG

Al Qadsiah

ALQ

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al-Gharafa40%
Draw27%
Al Qadsiah33%

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.30

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–09.6%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 0–18.5%
  • 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

32%Possession53%
28%Territory44%
10.2%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Al-Gharafa, 1 for Al Qadsiah. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.