AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD4
Al-Gharafa
ALG
Al Qadsiah
ALQ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al-Gharafa37%
Draw28%
Al Qadsiah35%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.32
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
41%Possession60%
41%Territory45%
8.0%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Al-Gharafa, 2 for Al Qadsiah. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 47 matches, not the full season.