AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD4
Al-Sadd
ALD
Al Ahli
ALH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al-Sadd31%
Draw28%
Al Ahli42%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.45
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
40%Possession50%
38%Territory37%
8.8%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Al-Sadd, 2 for Al Ahli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 47 matches, not the full season.