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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD3

Neftchi Fargona

NEF

Al Ittihad

ALI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Neftchi Fargona43%
Draw28%
Al Ittihad29%

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.16

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 1–011.1%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.8%
  • 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

52%Possession58%
41%Territory49%
2.8%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Neftchi Fargona, 1 for Al Ittihad. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.