AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD2
Al-Gharafa
ALG
Esteghlal
EST
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al-Gharafa37%
Draw28%
Esteghlal36%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.36
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
32%Possession26%
28%Territory34%
10.2%Directness8.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Al-Gharafa, 1 for Esteghlal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al-Gharafa
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.