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AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD2

Al-Gharafa

ALG

Esteghlal

EST

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al-Gharafa37%
Draw28%
Esteghlal36%

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.36

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.3%
  • 109.3%
  • 019.1%
  • 218.3%
  • 128.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

32%Possession26%
28%Territory34%
10.2%Directness8.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 1 for Al-Gharafa, 1 for Esteghlal. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes.