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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

AFC Champions League Elite · League phase MD4

Buriram United

BUR

Kashima Antlers

KAS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Buriram United28%
Draw27%
Kashima Antlers44%

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.50

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 0–110.8%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 1–08.2%
  • 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

41%Possession61%
45%Territory47%
5.9%Directness3.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Buriram United, 2 for Kashima Antlers. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 47 matches, not the full season.