Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 12
Al Shabab
ALS
Al Ahli
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Shabab16%
Draw20%
Al Ahli63%
Expected goals
1.09 – 2.22
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–37.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession53%
47%Territory44%
19%From set plays14%
0.10Chance quality0.17
5.6%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Shabab, 5 for Al Ahli.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.