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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 11

Al Qadsiah

ALQ

Al Hilal

ALH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Qadsiah34%
Draw26%
Al Hilal41%

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.62

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.1%
  • 128.7%
  • 017.8%
  • 217.8%
  • 107.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

57%Possession58%
44%Territory48%
13%From set plays24%
0.18Chance quality0.18
4.9%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Qadsiah, 5 for Al Hilal.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.