Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 11
Al Qadsiah
ALQ
Al Hilal
ALH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Qadsiah34%
Draw26%
Al Hilal41%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.62
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession58%
44%Territory48%
13%From set plays24%
0.18Chance quality0.18
4.9%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Qadsiah, 5 for Al Hilal.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al Qadsiah
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.