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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 11

Al Hazem

ALZ

Al-Fayha

ALF

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Hazem42%
Draw28%
Al-Fayha29%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.15

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.6%
  • 1011.3%
  • 019.0%
  • 008.9%
  • 218.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

44%Possession48%
43%Territory32%
21%From set plays12%
0.11Chance quality0.09
5.8%Directness6.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Hazem, 4 for Al-Fayha.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.