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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 11

Al Fateh FC

ALT

Al Shabab

ALS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Fateh FC42%
Draw27%
Al Shabab32%

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.33

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.8%
  • 109.2%
  • 218.9%
  • 017.8%
  • 127.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

44%Possession49%
34%Territory47%
20%From set plays19%
0.09Chance quality0.10
7.4%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Fateh FC, 4 for Al Shabab.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.