Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 11
Al Ahli
ALA
Al Khaleej
ALL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli74%
Draw16%
Al Khaleej9%
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.83
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.5%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–09.2%
- 3–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession49%
44%Territory48%
14%From set plays28%
0.17Chance quality0.07
5.3%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Al Ahli, 4 for Al Khaleej.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al Khaleej
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.