Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 10
Al-Fayha
ALF
Al Ahli
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al-Fayha16%
Draw22%
Al Ahli63%
Expected goals
0.96 – 2.03
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–110.8%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–210.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 1–36.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession53%
32%Territory44%
12%From set plays14%
0.09Chance quality0.17
6.8%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al-Fayha, 5 for Al Ahli.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.