Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 10
Al Diriyah
ALD
Al Riyadh
ALR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Diriyah54%
Draw25%
Al Riyadh21%
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession38%
38%Territory27%
36%From set plays39%
0.14Chance quality0.07
6.0%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Diriyah, 4 for Al Riyadh.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.