Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 10
Abha
ABH
Al Kholood
ALO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Abha33%
Draw27%
Al Kholood40%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.48
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession50%
38%Territory40%
23%From set plays13%
0.09Chance quality0.18
8.0%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Abha, 3 for Al Kholood. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.