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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 9

Al Ittihad

ALI

Al Shabab

ALS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Ittihad62%
Draw21%
Al Shabab17%

Expected goals

2.08 – 1.02

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–010.0%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 2–09.8%
  • 1–19.6%
  • 3–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

53%Possession49%
47%Territory47%
9%From set plays19%
0.11Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Ittihad, 4 for Al Shabab.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.