Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 9
Al Ahli
ALA
Al Nassr FC
ALN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli37%
Draw26%
Al Nassr FC37%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.49
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession60%
44%Territory55%
14%From set plays26%
0.17Chance quality0.10
5.3%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Al Ahli, 4 for Al Nassr FC.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.