Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 9
Al Ahli
ALA
Al Nassr FC
ALN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli39%
Draw25%
Al Nassr FC37%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.64
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession54%
45%Territory43%
20%From set plays33%
0.21Chance quality0.15
5.5%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ahli, 3 for Al Nassr FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.