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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 8

Al Hilal

ALH

Al Ittihad

ALI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Hilal66%
Draw20%
Al Ittihad15%

Expected goals

2.23 – 1.00

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 209.9%
  • 219.9%
  • 109.4%
  • 118.8%
  • 317.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

58%Possession53%
48%Territory47%
24%From set plays9%
0.18Chance quality0.11
5.0%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Al Hilal, 4 for Al Ittihad.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.