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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 26

Padova

PAD

Modena

MOD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Padova20%
Draw27%
Modena53%

Expected goals

0.85 – 1.52

Over 2.5

42%

Both to score

46%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–114.7%
  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–210.4%
  • 0–010.3%
  • 1–29.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Modena will have the ball; Padova will not mind.

39%Possession59%
34%Territory39%
18%From set plays22%
0.11Chance quality0.10
5.7%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Padova, 4 for Modena.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.