Serie B · Matchweek 26
Benevento
BEN
Mantova
MAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Benevento47%
Draw25%
Mantova28%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.29
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession56%
41%Territory48%
25%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.10
5.2%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Benevento, 4 for Mantova.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.