Serie B · Matchweek 25
Modena
MOD
Südtirol
SDT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Modena59%
Draw25%
Südtirol17%
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.84
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.8%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession57%
39%Territory29%
22%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.7%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Modena, 4 for Südtirol.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.