Serie B · Matchweek 24
Südtirol
SDT
Avellino
AVE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Südtirol36%
Draw29%
Avellino35%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.28
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–09.0%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession57%
29%Territory38%
23%From set plays32%
0.10Chance quality0.07
5.1%Directness8.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Südtirol, 4 for Avellino.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.