Serie B · Matchweek 24
Padova
PAD
Arezzo
ARE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Padova49%
Draw27%
Arezzo24%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.05
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession40%
34%Territory34%
18%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.12
5.7%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Padova, 4 for Arezzo.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Padova
Arezzo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.