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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 24

Mantova

MAN

Catanzaro

CAT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Mantova54%
Draw23%
Catanzaro24%

Expected goals

2.02 – 1.32

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.6%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 1–07.7%
  • 2–07.2%
  • 2–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Mantova will have the ball; Catanzaro will not mind.

56%Possession48%
48%Territory35%
24%From set plays27%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.9%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Mantova, 4 for Catanzaro.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.