Serie B · Matchweek 24
Cesena
CES
Hellas Verona
HEL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cesena49%
Draw25%
Hellas Verona26%
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.23
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–07.5%
- 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession47%
36%Territory43%
26%From set plays21%
0.09Chance quality0.09
5.3%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cesena, 4 for Hellas Verona.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.