Serie B · Matchweek 23
Catanzaro
CAT
Juve Stabia
JUV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Catanzaro31%
Draw26%
Juve Stabia43%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.60
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–17.4%
- 1–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession51%
35%Territory31%
27%From set plays36%
0.09Chance quality0.08
5.2%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Catanzaro, 4 for Juve Stabia.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.