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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 23

Avellino

AVE

Cesena

CES

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Avellino41%
Draw28%
Cesena32%

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.26

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 0–18.7%
  • 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Avellino will have the ball; Cesena will not mind.

57%Possession42%
38%Territory36%
32%From set plays26%
0.07Chance quality0.09
8.0%Directness5.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Avellino, 4 for Cesena.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.