Serie B · Matchweek 23
Ascoli
ASC
Padova
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ascoli58%
Draw24%
Padova18%
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.91
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.7%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ascoli will have the ball; Padova will not mind.
66%Possession39%
42%Territory34%
43%From set plays18%
0.13Chance quality0.11
3.7%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Ascoli, 4 for Padova.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.