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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 22

Padova

PAD

Catanzaro

CAT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Padova40%
Draw26%
Catanzaro34%

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.41

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 1–08.5%
  • 1–27.8%
  • 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Catanzaro will have the ball; Padova will not mind.

39%Possession48%
34%Territory35%
18%From set plays27%
0.11Chance quality0.09
5.7%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Padova, 4 for Catanzaro.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.