Serie B · Matchweek 22
Modena
MOD
Carrarese
CAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Modena53%
Draw26%
Carrarese21%
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.94
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession56%
39%Territory35%
22%From set plays15%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.7%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Modena, 4 for Carrarese.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.