Serie B · Matchweek 22
Mantova
MAN
Avellino
AVE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mantova40%
Draw28%
Avellino32%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.26
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession57%
48%Territory38%
24%From set plays32%
0.10Chance quality0.07
5.9%Directness8.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Mantova, 4 for Avellino.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Mantova
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.