Serie B · Matchweek 22
Arezzo
ARE
Empoli
EMP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arezzo32%
Draw27%
Empoli41%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.45
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession47%
34%Territory34%
31%From set plays34%
0.12Chance quality0.06
7.4%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Arezzo, 4 for Empoli.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arezzo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.