Serie B · Matchweek 21
Catanzaro
CAT
Cesena
CES
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Catanzaro31%
Draw24%
Cesena44%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.81
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession42%
35%Territory36%
27%From set plays26%
0.09Chance quality0.09
5.2%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Catanzaro, 4 for Cesena.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.