Serie B · Matchweek 20
Südtirol
SDT
Benevento
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Südtirol35%
Draw27%
Benevento38%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.46
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–28.5%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession56%
29%Territory41%
23%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.1%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Südtirol, 4 for Benevento.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.