Serie B · Matchweek 20
Südtirol
SDT
Benevento
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Südtirol48%
Draw28%
Benevento24%
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.97
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.3%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Benevento get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession45%
35%Territory32%
14%From set plays34%
0.06Chance quality0.06
4.8%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Südtirol, 3 for Benevento. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.