Serie B · Matchweek 20
Palermo
PAL
Empoli
EMP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Palermo56%
Draw24%
Empoli20%
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.02
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession52%
37%Territory32%
26%From set plays38%
0.10Chance quality0.07
4.0%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Palermo, 3 for Empoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.