Serie B · Matchweek 20
Mantova
MAN
Carrarese
CAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mantova47%
Draw26%
Carrarese27%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.17
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Mantova will have the ball; Carrarese will not mind.
44%Possession34%
33%Territory38%
19%From set plays43%
0.10Chance quality0.08
7.0%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mantova, 3 for Carrarese. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.