Serie B · Matchweek 20
Mantova
MAN
Carrarese
CAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mantova40%
Draw27%
Carrarese33%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.35
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession56%
48%Territory35%
24%From set plays15%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.9%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Mantova, 4 for Carrarese.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Mantova
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.